NY Yankees, part 4: Jorge Posada

Regression to the mean.

Posada’s year was at least as weird as the turnaround by Roger Clemens when he went to Toronto and somehow got big and strong. Here’s a catcher at age 35 who made a bid for MVP!! I mean, he is a switch hitter, and he has been, like Jeter and Abreu, very durable. But this is ridiculous. He needs to get a urine test.

“Regression to the mean” refers to that tendency of weird stats to become normal again. For whatever reason. For an old catcher (he’s 36, and has caught over 1400 games] like Posada, that could mean a real collapse. But let’s just go back to his 2006 numbers and resume the normal slide. He’s a decent catcher. He’s not getting any faster.

Prediction: BA .260, 14 HR, OBP .340 75 RBI. Miss 25 games. An average guy, overall, at his position. And that’s good for a guy his age.

Is there a pattern in my analysis? Well, yes, but that is because there is a pattern in the Yankee team. That pattern is a lot of players at key positions who are past their prime. Not every one of these older guys will sink, but as a group, they will….some more, some less. This is an average team with one superstar.


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