John Edwards got some bad news yesterday: First, from the South Carolina polling, he continues to be the first choice of only 20% of the Democratic electorate, and secondly, he didn’t get the endorsement of key labor unions in Nevada. Further, John Kerry gave his endorsement to Obama. What should Edwards do?
In the first place, Edwards supporters will not migrate to Hillary, at this point and maybe never, even if Edwards tell them to. That is a fact. And for Obama, having an attack dog like Edwards on board would be antithetical to his message.
Unquestionably, Clinton is in big trouble; her margin of victory in NH was a fraction of the lead she had just a month ago, and will definitely not hold across the country, where she is now tied with Obama. But she holds a lead in super-delegates.
Two truths flow from this analysis. Neither Obama nor Clinton can win without Edwards help, and Edwards cannot help either one at this point.
Edwards should and will hang in, even if the money runs low, and if his percentages fall to 15 or even 12%. Eventually, he will be a great fit with Obama. But not now. When the day comes (and it will) that Obama needs Edwards to win, Edwards can strike a credible bargain with him.