If U.S. combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, three developments would be likely to unfold. Majority Shiites would drive Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province. Southern Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. And the Kurdish north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence there. In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.
That was the conclusion reached in recent “war games” exercises conducted for the U.S. military by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson. “I honestly don’t think it will be apocalyptic,” said Anderson, who has served in Iraq and now works for a major defense contractor. But “it will be ugly.”
n making the case for a continued U.S. troop presence, President Bush has offered far more dire forecasts, arguing that al-Qaeda or Iran — or both — would take over Iraq after a “precipitous withdrawal” of U.S. forces. Al-Qaeda, he said recently, would “be able to recruit better and raise more money from which to launch their objectives” of attacking the U.S. homeland. War opponents in Congress counter that Bush’s talk about al-Qaeda is overblown fear-mongering and that nothing could be worse than the present situation.