The government of Iraq will fall; soon.

The surge has clearly accomplished next to nothing.  No political progress has been made, and the security situation has clearly deteriorated in some segments as it has improved somewhat in other areas.  Bush is under tremendous pressure, and even the Bush handpuppet Petraeus won’t be able to spin the failure of the political side.  There has been no doubt that Bush will pull as many delaying tactics as necessary in order to pass the Iraq mess to his successor, and has already begun the finger pointing at the Congress, the Democrats, Syria, Iran, and now the Saudis.  But the obvious step  for Bush at this point is to pull the rug out from under the al Maliki government, and demand that the US  “give the new government a chance.”  Remember, Bush said he would “fix Iraq” so withdrawal would not occur. The Christian Science Monitor has a related story:

Iraq is in the throes of its worst political crisis since the fall of Saddam Hussein with the new democratic system, based on national consensus among its ethnic and sectarian groups, appearing dangerously close to collapsing, say several politicians and analysts.

This has brought paralysis to governmental institutions and has left parliament unable to make headway on 18 benchmarks Washington is using to measure progress in Iraq, including legislation on oil revenue sharing and reforming security forces.

And the disconnect between Baghdad and Washington over the urgency for solutions is growing. The Iraqi parliament is set for an August vacation as the Bush administration faces pressure to show progress in time for a September report to Congress.

At the moment, Iraqi politicians are simply trying to keep the government from disintegrating. On Friday, top Iraqi officials were set to convene in the Kurdish north for a crisis summit, in the hopes that talks held outside of Baghdad’s politically poisonous atmosphere may bring some resolution to the current political standstill. President Jalal Talabani and his two deputies, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the president of the semiautonomous Kurdish region, Massoud Barzani, were set to meet at the Salaheddin summer resort at the end of a difficult week.

On Wednesday, the Iraqi Accordance Front said it pulled out of Mr. Maliki’s coalition government, but would return its six cabinet members if the prime minister met a list of demands. The Sunni bloc says it wants, among other things, pardons for detainees not facing specific criminal charges and for all militias to be disbanded.

“We are frankly in the midst of the worst crisis,” says Fakhri Karim, a close adviser to Messrs. Barzani and Talabani who also publishes the independent Al Mada newspaper. He says he doubts the Friday meeting will find any resolution because of the new political tussle with the Iraqi Accordance Front.

“Most of the political blocs have failed to operate within the framework of national consensus. They can’t even properly formulate their positions and proposals, let alone realize the very serious dangers that surround everyone.”

The gravity of the situation was underscored by several officials. “We have a governmental crisis. Our people expect better performance,” said Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari.

And since Saturday, US Ambassador Ryan Crocker has been shuttling between Iraq’s top leaders, but an embassy spokesperson said this was not necessarily indicative of a crisis.

“The surge has done well in making a difference in security conditions. But it isn’t a light switch for reconciliation; there are no quick fixes to years of bitterness and violence,” he said.

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1 Comment

Filed under Bill Kristol: is he smarter than you?, Dick Cheney: Hannibal Lector in disguise?, Fred Kagan:an idiot running a war, George W. Bush: is he really THAT bad?, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Politics

One response to “The government of Iraq will fall; soon.

  1. Joe

    Discouraging article. Makes you wonder if anyone in the region has an interest in a successful Iraqi state. I’m sure there are plenty of people in the region who would welcome it, but all the powers seem to prefer a divided crumbling state. What a mess. Thanks for the posting the article.

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