What will happen when we leave Iraq?

Matthew Yglesias:

Muqtada al-Sadr goes in for a little political repositioning, “reaching out to a broad array of Sunni leaders” and distancing itself from the US-backed, Shiite-led Iraqi government that it once supported. Sadr’s swung back and forth on this kind of thing, so I don’t think it need be seen as reflecting any true change of heart. Still, he seems like a pretty canny politician who has a better grasp than most Americans on the state of Iraqi public opinion.

Thus, when he has his minions saying things like “We want to aim the guns against the occupation and al-Qaeda, not between Iraqis” I think that’s a sound indication that this is the political sweet spot in Iraq. That, in turn, is just another indication that if we leave Iraq, there’ll be nothing left for Iraqis to do but turn on al-Qaeda; it’s only the fact of the occupation that prevents the objective unpopularity of al-Qaeda from becoming the most salient thing.

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11 Comments

Filed under Bill Kristol: is he smarter than you?, Condoleezza Rice: tell me again, what is her job?, Dick Cheney: Hannibal Lector in disguise?, George W. Bush: is he really THAT bad?, Iraq, John McCain for president of Del Boca Vista, Middle East, Politics

11 responses to “What will happen when we leave Iraq?

  1. Very good! I would add that from a wider regional perspective, the Sunni Iranians and the Shiite Saudis will be forced to take some part in the Iraq political process. As a one who believes in national and regional self determination. I would be far more hopeful about that outcome then I am about continuing the US military occupation. The third player may be the UN. Perhaps it’s time to bring in the peacekeepers.

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