Yesterday, I laid out the scenario by which Bush will find an excuse to massively attack Iran. Today I will try to recapitulate and give a slightly larger view of the trees/forest.
The real goal is to lay waste the Iranian nuclear power program, but the excuse will be attacks on American servicepeople:
BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says the trigger for such an attack reportedly includes any confirmation that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon – which it denies. Alternatively, our correspondent adds, a high-casualty attack on US forces in neighbouring Iraq could also trigger a bombing campaign if it were traced directly back to Tehran.
Obviously Iran is not going to have any nuclear weapons within at least 5 years, so the pretense will be related to the second alternative. Yesterday I cited the preliminary groundwork laid by Bush for “attacks” on our forces on land, sea or in the air. Bush will cite United Nations Resolution 1737 as an excuse for blockade/incursion/provocation, and, when some sort of “collision” occurs, he will cite the UN charter provision justifying war for purposes of self defense; it is important to recognize that self defense is not confined to defense of country; defense of “forces” is also recognized as a legitimate excuse for war.
Unlike the situation surrounding the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Bush is not saying that the conditions for war are presently satisfied. This is an important distinction, and it has it roots in the loss of credibility suffered by Bush when his “causes for war” in Iraq, as delivered in speechs in Cincinnati, the UN and Washington, were revealed to be false. This time around, Bush will not rely on intelligence or speeches which no one would believe. That is why, for example, the presentation in Baghdad of explosive devices supposedly originating in Iran, was done anonymously: it was only groundwork, not a casus belli. The precipitating cause for the attack, as I suggested yesterday, will be an episode that could pass, for at least a few hours, as an attack on at least a dozen or so US servicepeople: Army, Marines, Navy or Air Force. Then it will be miitary commanders on the scene, previously given the authority by Bush, the cowardly cowboy president, to “shoot first, and ask questions later.” I would suggest that one simple way to accomplish this will be to order US naval vessels to steam about in Iranian waters until one collides with a mine. Bush will shrug his shoulders and say something like “the generals had the authority to protect our troops,” as if he had nothing to do with it.
In a subsequent post, I will show the US’ unprecedented ability to inflict damage on Iran within a very short time frame, with the forces and technology which have been and will be assembled.
The announcement that the Brits are starting to pull out their troops underlines the cause for an attack within the next few weeks: Tony Blair is stepping down this summer, and there will be much less complicity/cover from the Brits when he does. In fact, a survey of members of parliament suggests that his government may fall if he cooperates with a massive US attack on Iran.
The attack will not occur BEFORE the naval and air power is all in place. It is safe to say that the minimalist approach of Donald Rumsfeld has been thoroughly discredited, and we are back to the Colin Powell concept of how to fight a war: overwhelming force. The task will be a daunting one: to prevent the sinking of even ONE large ship/oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz, where it could block oil shipments, send the price of oil (and gasoline) through the roof, and trigger massive protests, even impeachment, in the US.
It is notable that we do not know where some of our most powerful ships (e. g. the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise and its strike force) are presently located. For others, like the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan and its strike force, we know their location, but not their destination. There are at least 30 US naval vessels in the Gulf now that we know of, and more are nearby in the Arabian Sea.
This combined force will certainly be the most powerful naval armada in history. More on that subject on another day.
1 Comment
February 23, 2007 at 4:14 am
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